Rajasthan Royals (RR) are slight favourites to beat Chennai Super Kings (CSK) in Match 3 of IPL 2026 at the Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati on Monday, March 30. Bookmakers price RR around 1.75-1.85 odds (implied win probability of ~54-57%).
Both teams are coming off abysmal 2025 seasons, finishing ninth and tenth respectively. However, the Sanju Samson-Ravindra Jadeja trade adds a blockbuster storyline. Samson faces his old franchise in CSK yellow, while Jadeja returns to RR where his IPL career started. This article covers the odds, predicted XIs, pitch report, weather, head-to-head record, and match prediction.
RR and CSK’s Road to IPL 2026
Rajasthan Royals had a forgettable IPL 2025, finishing ninth with just 4 wins from 14 matches. The biggest change in the off-season was the departure of captain Sanju Samson, who was traded to CSK in exchange for Ravindra Jadeja and Sam Curran.
Riyan Parag takes over as captain, making this a fresh start for the Royals. However, Sam Curran has been ruled out of the entire season with injury, and Dasun Shanaka has been named as his replacement. RR also added Ravi Bishnoi (₹7.2 crore) and Donovan Ferreira at the auction.
On the other side, CSK had their worst-ever IPL season in 2025, finishing dead last on the points table with just 4 wins. The five-time champions made bold moves at the auction, spending ₹14.2 crore each on uncapped players Prashant Veer and Kartik Sharma.
The biggest blow for CSK is the absence of MS Dhoni, who has been sidelined for two weeks with a calf strain. Ruturaj Gaikwad continues as captain and returns after missing a large chunk of IPL 2025 due to injury. Sanju Samson is expected to open alongside Gaikwad and keep wicket.
RR vs CSK Match Details
Here are the key details for Match 3 of IPL 2026.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Match | RR vs CSK, 3rd Match |
| Tournament | Indian Premier League (IPL) 2026 |
| Date | Monday, March 30, 2026 |
| Time | 7:30 PM IST |
| Venue | Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati |
| Live Streaming | Star Sports Network / JioHotstar |
RR vs CSK Betting Odds Comparison
RR are slight favourites across most platforms. Home advantage in Guwahati, a stronger batting lineup, and RR’s dominant recent record against CSK (4 wins in last 5) all work in their favour.
CSK are priced as underdogs, but their experience and the addition of Sanju Samson in red-hot T20 World Cup form could make this closer than the odds suggest.
| Platform | RR Win Odds | CSK Win Odds | Implied RR Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.80 | 2.05 | ~56% |
| Bet365 | 1.78 | 2.10 | ~56% |
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 2.00 | ~55% |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 1.98 | ~54% |
RR sit at roughly 54-56% implied win probability across platforms. This is the tightest contest of the first three IPL 2026 matches. The rain forecast and the Samson-Jadeja factor could shift these odds significantly on match day.
RR vs CSK Predicted Playing XIs
Both squads face key absences. Sam Curran is out for the entire season for RR, while MS Dhoni and Dewald Brevis are unavailable for CSK.
Rajasthan Royals (RR) Predicted XI
Yashasvi Jaiswal, Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Riyan Parag (c), Shimron Hetmyer, Dhruv Jurel (wk), Donovan Ferreira, Ravindra Jadeja, Jofra Archer, Ravi Bishnoi, Tushar Deshpande, Sandeep Sharma.
Yashasvi Jaiswal was RR’s leading run-scorer in 2025 with 559 runs at a strike rate of 160. Alongside teenage prodigy Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, RR have an explosive opening pair that can set the tone early.
Ravindra Jadeja returning to RR after 13 years at CSK is the storyline of this match. He is the highest wicket-taker in the RR-CSK rivalry and knows every CSK batter inside out. That intelligence could be priceless.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK) Predicted XI
Sanju Samson (wk), Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Ayush Mhatre, Matt Short, Shivam Dube, Kartik Sharma, Prashant Veer, Jamie Overton, Noor Ahmad, Matt Henry, Khaleel Ahmed.
Without MS Dhoni, CSK lose their most iconic finisher and leader. Sanju Samson steps in as wicketkeeper and is expected to open alongside Gaikwad. Samson arrives in scorching form after winning Player of the Tournament at the T20 World Cup 2026 with 321 runs.
CSK’s bowling leans heavily on Noor Ahmad (Afghan left-arm spinner) and Khaleel Ahmed (left-arm pace). Matt Henry adds New Zealand quality with the new ball, while Jamie Overton provides all-round depth.
Barsapara Cricket Stadium Pitch Report
The Barsapara Cricket Stadium in Guwahati is a batting-friendly ground with a flat surface. The average first innings score is around 180 in IPL matches, and the average runs per over stands at 8.56.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Pitch Behaviour | Flat with true bounce. Ball comes onto the bat nicely. Spinners get some grip later. |
| Batting Conditions | Excellent. High-scoring matches are the norm at this venue. |
| Bowling Conditions | Pacers can get early movement with the new ball. Spinners play a role in the middle overs. |
| Avg. 1st Innings Score (IPL) | Around 180 |
| Par Score (Expected) | Around 185-195 runs |
| Toss Impact | Dew is a factor under lights. Teams chasing have a slight advantage. |
How Will Dew Affect This Match?
Guwahati’s humid conditions typically produce dew in the second innings. The ball gets slippery and slower deliveries become harder to control. As a result, the captain winning the toss will almost certainly choose to bowl first and chase.
Weather Forecast for RR vs CSK
Rain is a genuine concern for this match. Unlike the first two games of IPL 2026, the weather in Guwahati is far from ideal on Monday evening.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Temperature | Around 25-26°C (pleasant and humid) |
| Weather | Mostly cloudy with rain expected in the morning and evening |
| Rain Probability | 55% chance of rain during match hours |
| Humidity | High |
| Wind | Moderate |
Rain hampered RR’s practice session on Sunday, and the pitch was under covers on the eve of the match. If rain interrupts the match, it could be reduced to a shorter game or abandoned altogether. Fans should keep an eye on weather updates closer to the 7:30 PM start time.
RR vs CSK Head-to-Head Record in IPL
This is one of IPL’s most evenly matched rivalries. CSK lead the overall record, but RR have been dominant in recent years, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Statistic | Result |
|---|---|
| Total IPL Matches Played | 31 |
| CSK Wins | 16 |
| RR Wins | 15 |
| RR Wins in Last 5 Matches | 4 |
| RR Wins Since IPL 2020 | 8 (out of 9) |
| Highest Score in Rivalry | CSK 246/5 (IPL 2010) |
| Highest Wicket-Taker (Rivalry) | Ravindra Jadeja (20+ wickets) |
| Most Runs (Rivalry) | MS Dhoni |
Key Players to Watch
Both squads feature game-changers who could swing the match in a single session. Here are the players most likely to determine Monday’s outcome.
| Player | Team | Why They Matter |
|---|---|---|
| Yashasvi Jaiswal | RR | 559 runs in IPL 2025 at SR of 160. India’s most exciting young opener. Can dominate powerplays like few others. |
| Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | RR | Teenage sensation who starred in the U19 World Cup 2026. His debut IPL 2025 season showed he belongs at the big stage. Electric at the top. |
| Ravindra Jadeja | RR | Highest wicket-taker in RR-CSK rivalry (20+ wickets). Knows every CSK batter from 13 years of playing alongside them. Adds batting depth too. |
| Jofra Archer | RR | 11 wickets in IPL 2025, 11 in T20 WC 2026. Express pace and death-bowling expertise make him RR’s most lethal weapon. |
| Sanju Samson | CSK | Player of the Tournament at T20 WC 2026 (232 runs in 4 Innings). Arrives in career-best form. Will be desperate to prove himself against his old franchise. |
| Ruturaj Gaikwad | CSK | Returns after injury-hit 2025. One of IPL’s most consistent openers when fit. His partnership with Samson could be CSK’s biggest weapon. |
| Noor Ahmad | CSK | Afghan left-arm spinner who was excellent in IPL 2025. His ability to control runs in the middle overs is crucial for a CSK bowling attack that lacks depth. |
Toss Prediction
Dew at Barsapara Cricket Stadium is a well-known factor in evening matches. The ball gets slippery in the second innings, making life tough for bowlers.
However, the rain forecast could change everything. If the match is rain-curtailed, batting first in a shortened game might be preferable. Under normal conditions, expect the toss winner to bowl first and chase.
Match Prediction
This is the most evenly matched contest of the first three IPL 2026 games. Both teams finished at the bottom last season, and both have undergone significant squad changes.
Where RR Holds the Edge
Recent form in this rivalry is overwhelmingly in RR’s favour. They have won 8 of the last 9 meetings against CSK since 2020, including both matches in IPL 2025. That kind of psychological dominance is hard to ignore.
RR’s batting is stacked. Jaiswal and Sooryavanshi at the top, Parag and Hetmyer in the middle, and Jadeja lower down. Additionally, Jofra Archer gives them the one genuine match-winning fast bowler that CSK currently lack.
Jadeja’s inside knowledge of CSK’s batting order after 13 years is an underrated advantage. He knows Ruturaj, Dube, and every other CSK player intimately. That could be decisive.
Where CSK Holds the Edge
Sanju Samson in current form is arguably the most dangerous batter in this match. His T20 World Cup performance (321 runs, Player of the Tournament) means he arrives with sky-high confidence. Samson also knows the Guwahati pitch from his years at RR.
CSK’s spin bowling could be a trump card. Noor Ahmad was one of IPL 2025’s best spinners, and Akeal Hosein adds a second left-arm spin option. On a Guwahati pitch that offers grip later in the innings, this duo could strangle RR’s middle order.
Moreover, CSK have the overall head-to-head lead (16-15) and the experience of winning five IPL titles. Ruturaj Gaikwad’s return after injury adds stability to the top order that CSK badly missed in 2025.
Key Concerns for Both Teams
RR’s concern is their bowling depth. Without Sam Curran, they lose a key all-round option. Tushar Deshpande has an economy rate of 9.84 in IPL cricket, and Sandeep Sharma is past his prime. If Jofra Archer has an off day, RR’s bowling could leak runs badly.
CSK’s concern is the absence of MS Dhoni. Beyond his batting, Dhoni’s tactical captaincy from behind the stumps has been CSK’s secret weapon for 17 years. Without him, Gaikwad carries a heavier leadership burden. Additionally, the rain threat adds uncertainty, and CSK’s bowling looks thin if the pitch doesn’t help their spinners.
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Final Verdict: High Scoring Game is Expected Between RR And CSK
Prediction: RR hold a narrow edge at around 54-56%. Their recent dominance over CSK (8 of last 9), home advantage in Guwahati, Jadeja’s insider knowledge, and a superior batting lineup make them slight favourites.
However, CSK have Sanju Samson in career-best form and a spin attack that could exploit the Guwahati pitch. The rain factor makes this match unpredictable. A curtailed game could favour either side depending on who bats first.
Expect a competitive contest with a par score around 180-190 if we get a full match. The team batting second will have a dew advantage, but rain interruptions could change the equation entirely.
