England enter the 1st Test against New Zealand as favourites at 8/11, while the Black Caps sit at 2/1. The opener of the New Zealand tour of England 2026 begins on Thursday, June 4, at Lord’s Cricket Ground, kicking off the World Test Championship 2025-27 chapter for both sides.
Furthermore, rain hovers over St John’s Wood, which could tilt the result toward a draw. Below, you’ll find the odds, prediction, pitch report, weather, head-to-head record, probable XIs, and key players to watch.
England vs New Zealand 1st Test Odds
England look likely winners of the Lord’s opener, although a rain-affected draw is suddenly back in conversation given the forecast.
Match odds (Betfred):
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| England Win | 8/11 |
| New Zealand Win | 2/1 |
| Draw | 4/1 |
Additionally, exchange markets price England at roughly 1.42 and New Zealand near 2.62.
Why England are favourites: Stokes’ side hasn’t lost a home Test series since Brendon McCullum took charge in 2022. Moreover, Bazball’s signature scalp remains a 3-0 sweep of New Zealand in 2022.
Why New Zealand carry weight: The Black Caps thumped Ireland by an innings and 79 runs at Stormont last week. Furthermore, their full-strength pace battery of Henry, Jamieson, O’Rourke, and Nathan Smith fits Lord’s overhead conditions perfectly.
England vs New Zealand 1st Test Match Details
| Details | Info |
|---|---|
| Match | England vs New Zealand, 1st Test, NZ tour of England 2026 |
| Date | June 4-8, 2026 |
| Start Time | 11:00 AM BST / 3:30 PM IST |
| Venue | Lord’s Cricket Ground, London |
| Series Context | ICC World Test Championship 2025-27 |
| Broadcast (India) | Sony Sports Network |
| Live Streaming (India) | Sony LIV |
| Broadcast (UK) | Sky Sports Cricket |
Lord’s Cricket Ground Pitch Report
The Lord’s pitch traditionally rewards seam bowling in the first session, then eases out for batters from Day 2 onwards. Notably, the famous slope adds another bowling weapon for seamers swinging it both ways.
| Pitch Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| Pace & Bounce | Even with good carry through to the keeper |
| Seam Movement | Significant under cloud cover, especially Day 1 morning |
| Swing | Conventional swing dominant under overcast skies |
| Spin | Limited until Day 4-5 wear |
| Suggested Toss Call | Bowl first under cloud, bat first if it’s sunny |
Bowling first looks the smart call if you win the toss under cloud cover. Subsequently flags that a fourth-innings chase of 240-250 will likely prove tricky on this surface.
London Weather Forecast (June 4-8, 2026)
Rain is the biggest storyline of this Test, with a 70% precipitation chance hanging over Day 1 that could wipe out sessions and reshape the result.
| Day | Date | High | Rain Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | June 4 | 64°F / 18°C | 70% |
| Friday | June 5 | 65°F / 18°C | 20% |
| Saturday | June 6 | 63°F / 17°C | 45% |
| Sunday | June 7 | 67°F / 19°C | 20% |
| Monday | June 8 | 60°F / 16°C | 40% |
Source: Open-Meteo forecast for St John’s Wood, London (pulled June 4, 2026).
Consequently, the swing bowlers should enjoy themselves whenever play actually happens. Moreover, cool overcast conditions specifically favour New Zealand’s seam-heavy attack over England’s slightly thinner pace stocks.
England vs New Zealand Head-to-Head Test Record
England dominate the all-time Test ledger against New Zealand, although the Black Caps have closed the gap noticeably in the last decade.
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| Total Tests Played | 115 |
| England Won | 54 |
| New Zealand Won | 14 |
| Drawn | 47 |
| Last 5 Meetings | England 3, New Zealand 2 |
| Last Series (NZ 2024) | England won 2-1 |
| Last Lord’s Test between sides (2022) | England won by 5 wickets |
Interestingly, only one of the last 10 Tests at Lord’s ended in a draw, and that was the 2021 England vs New Zealand contest. Therefore, history slightly nudges against the 4/1 draw price, although the 2026 forecast might rewrite that script.
England vs New Zealand Probable Playing XIs
Here are Playing XI of both Teams:
England Probable XI
Ben Stokes (c), Ben Duckett, Emilio Gay, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Jacob Bethell, Jamie Smith (wk), Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue, Ollie Robinson, Shoaib Bashir.
Notably, Emilio Gay earns his Test cap after piling up three centuries at an average of 78.85 in the County Championship, replacing the dropped Zak Crawley. Additionally, Ollie Pope was also axed after a lean Ashes run.
New Zealand Probable XI
Tom Latham (c), Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell (wk), Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Will O’Rourke.
Furthermore, Nathan Smith pushes Santner hard for the all-rounder slot after his six-wicket haul against Ireland.
England vs New Zealand : Key Players To Watch
| Player | Team | Why They Matter |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Root | England | Sits 1,978 runs behind Sachin Tendulkar’s all-time Test runs record. Priced at 11/4 for series top scorer. |
| Harry Brook | England | ICC Test batting ranking No. 2 with 857 points (only behind Root on 880). |
| Matt Henry | New Zealand | Lord’s-friendly skiddy seamer. ICC Test bowler ranking No. 3 with 836 points. Built reputation in English conditions with Kent. |
| Nathan Smith | New Zealand | Took 6/40 vs Ireland last week. Sharp value bet at 4.33 for top NZ bowler. |
| Tom Blundell | New Zealand | Hammered 186 vs Ireland in Belfast. Wicketkeeper-batter in red-hot touch. |
| Rachin Ravindra | New Zealand | Belfast century carrier; adds No. 4 depth plus handy part-time spin option. |
Suggested Reads:
England vs New Zealand Match Prediction
England remain favourites at 8/11, although New Zealand at 2/1 carry serious value given Lord’s overcast skies and the Kiwis’ Henry-led pace battery. However, the weather could ultimately call the shots.
Specifically, a rain-shortened Test pushes the 4/1 draw price into genuine play, especially since the only Lord’s draw in the last decade involved these very two teams.
Therefore, our final read leans England-or-Draw double chance for safer punters, while value chasers can lean New Zealand. Above all, expect a low-scoring, seam-friendly slugfest whenever the rain actually lets the cricket breathe.
