Bangladesh look set to upset Australia in the 1st ODI of the Australia tour of Bangladesh 2026, carrying a 61% win probability.
However, the bookmakers tell a different story. Pre-match odds list Australia at 1.57 and Bangladesh at 2.35, which makes the Aussies clear favourites on price.
Furthermore, the day fixture takes place at the Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur, Dhaka on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, at 10:30 AM IST.
BAN vs AUS 1st ODI: Match Details
| Details | Info |
|---|---|
| Match | Bangladesh vs Australia, 1st ODI, Australia Tour of Bangladesh 2026 |
| Date & Time (IST) | Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 10:30 AM |
| Venue | Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur, Dhaka |
| Series | 3-match ODI series, followed by 3 T20Is in Chattogram |
| Live Streaming (India) | FanCode app (no TV coverage in India) |
BAN vs AUS Match Odds & Win Probability
Pre-match odds and the model’s win-probability split tell two very different stories.
| Outcome | Bookmaker Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Australia to win | 1.57 | ~64% |
| Bangladesh to win | 2.35 | ~43% |
| Win Probability (Model) | BAN 61% / AUS 39% | Expert call |
Clearly, that gap between the market and the model creates value on Bangladesh if you back the expert read over the bookmaker’s price.
Mirpur Pitch & Dhaka Weather Report
The Shere Bangla surface remains traditionally slow and helpful for spinners, with grip plus turn on offer through the contest.
Moreover, batters need patience here, since stroke-play opens up only once a partnership takes hold. Average first-innings scores sit around 240-260, which makes chasing under lights tricky on this venue.
As for the weather, Dhaka in early June stays hot and humid with temperatures between 32-34°C. Additionally, humidity hovers around 70-75%, which could aid swing in the opening overs.
However, scattered afternoon showers remain possible, so a brief interruption can’t be discounted.
BAN vs AUS Head-to-Head in ODIs
Australia hold a one-sided 21-1 record in ODIs against Bangladesh, with the Tigers’ lone victory dating back to 2005 when Mohammad Ashraful struck a memorable century in Cardiff.
| Details | Info |
|---|---|
| Matches Played | 22 |
| Won by Australia | 21 |
| Won by Bangladesh | 1 |
| No Result / Tied | 0 |
| Bangladesh’s Only Win | June 2005, Cardiff (Mohammad Ashraful ton) |
| Recent Form – Australia | L W W W L |
| Recent Form – Bangladesh | W W L W L |
Significantly, Australia have never lost an ODI on Bangladeshi soil against the home side. Therefore, history hangs heavily over this contest.
BAN vs AUS Predicted Playing XIs
Here are the Probable best Predicted Playing XI of both Teams:
Bangladesh (BAN)
Tanzid Hasan, Saif Hassan, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Tawhid Hridoy, Litton Das (WK), Mosaddek Hossain, Mehidy Hasan Miraz (C), Rishad Hossain, Taskin Ahmed, Mustafizur Rahman, Nahid Rana.
Australia (AUS)
Matt Short, Josh Inglis (C/WK), Marnus Labuschagne, Alex Carey, Matt Renshaw, Cameron Green, Cooper Connolly, Xavier Bartlett, Nathan Ellis, Adam Zampa, Matt Kuhnemann.
Note: Mitch Marsh (ankle), Travis Head (personal reasons), and Tanveer Sangha (hamstring) all miss the ODI leg. Todd Murphy is in line for a maiden ODI cap if Australia pick an extra spinner.
BAN vs AUS Probable Best Performers
Here are the Probable Best Performers from both teams:
Probable Best Batter: Najmul Hossain Shanto
Najmul Hossain Shanto brings genuine middle-order weight as Bangladesh’s Test skipper.
Moreover, the left-hander has racked up 303 runs across his last 10 ODI knocks at an average of 33.67. Therefore, his wicket becomes Australia’s primary target through the middle overs.
Probable Best Bowler: Mustafizur Rahman
Mustafizur Rahman anchors the Bangladesh pace attack and remains a serious threat with the new ball on the slow Mirpur deck.
Additionally, his cutters and variations should trouble an Australia top order missing Travis Head’s aggression. Consequently, an early Inglis dismissal becomes very much in play.
Australia X-Factor: Josh Inglis
Josh Inglis leads Australia in Marsh’s absence and finished the Pakistan ODI series as the visitors’ top run-getter .
Furthermore, he should open the innings, which gives him licence to take on the new ball. As a result, an Inglis-led start could derail Bangladesh’s plans before the spinners even arrive.
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BAN vs AUS 1st ODI Prediction
Bangladesh look favourites to take the opener at 61% win probability, largely because home conditions plus a slow Mirpur surface tilt heavily toward their spin-heavy attack.
Moreover, Australia arrive depleted off a 2-1 series defeat to Pakistan, missing Marsh, Head, and Sangha. Their top order looks thin enough for the hosts to exploit on a turning track.
However, Australia have never lost an ODI on Bangladeshi soil, and the bookmaker price of 1.57 reflects that historical edge. Inglis plus Cameron Green can still flip the script with one big partnership.
Disclaimer: Predictions and betting tips rely on form, conditions, and recent results. Cricket betting carries financial risk; only play with funds you can afford to lose, and stick to legal platforms in your jurisdiction.
