Chennai Super Kings (CSK) are favourites against Mumbai Indians (MI) in Match 44 of IPL 2026 at the M.A. Chidambaram Stadium (Chepauk), Chennai on Saturday, May 2 at 7:30 PM IST. CSK are priced around 1.65-1.75 odds (implied win probability of ~57-61%).
Vs
MA Chidambaram Stadium
2 May 2026 07:30 PM
The IPL’s greatest rivalry meets at rock bottom. CSK are 6th with just 3 wins from 8 matches and lost their last game to GT. Meanwhile, MI are 9th with only 2 wins and have been eliminated from playoff contention after failing to defend 243 against SRH.
However, CSK won the reverse fixture by 103 runs (Hosein 4/17, MI collapsed to 104). This article covers odds, predicted XIs, Chepauk pitch report, weather, and CSK vs MI Match 44 prediction.
CSK vs MI Match Details
Here are the key details for Match 44 of IPL 2026, the second instalment of the IPL’s greatest rivalry this season.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Match | CSK vs MI, 44th Match |
| Tournament | Indian Premier League (IPL) 2026 |
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Time | 7:30 PM IST (evening game) |
| Venue | M.A. Chidambaram Stadium (Chepauk), Chennai |
| Live Streaming | Star Sports Network / JioHotstar |
| Weather Alert | Mostly sunny. ~36°C. 10% rain chance. Dew in second innings. |
CSK vs MI Betting Odds Comparison
CSK are favourites because of home advantage, the spin-friendly Chepauk surface, their 103-run reverse fixture win, and MI’s worst bowling economy in the tournament. However, MI’s explosive batting (Rickelton 123*, SKY 396 runs) keeps the odds from being one-sided.
| Platform | CSK Win Odds | MI Win Odds | Implied CSK Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.65 | 2.30 | ~61% |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 2.20 | ~59% |
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 2.25 | ~60% |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 2.15 | ~57% |
CSK at 57-61% implied win probability reflects their home advantage and MI’s bowling collapse (economy 10.83). Although MI’s batting has been explosive, their inability to defend even 243 shows the bowling cannot support the batting.
Disclaimer: Odds are indicative and sourced from publicly available platforms at the time of writing. Consequently, they may change closer to match time.
CSK vs MI Predicted Playing XIs
Both teams may make changes after their respective losses. CSK could bring back Mukesh Choudhary, while MI welcome Trent Boult and may retain the Rickelton-Jacks opening pair.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK) Predicted XI
Sanju Samson (wk), Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Urvil Patel / Sarfaraz Khan, Dewald Brevis, Shivam Dube, Kartik Sharma, Jamie Overton, Akeal Hosein, Noor Ahmad, Anshul Kamboj, Mukesh Choudhary / Gurjapneet Singh.
Mumbai Indians (MI) Predicted XI
Will Jacks, Ryan Rickelton (wk), Naman Dhir, Suryakumar Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya (c), Robin Minz / Shardul Thakur, Trent Boult, Jasprit Bumrah, AM Ghazanfar, Ashwani Kumar.
M.A. Chidambaram Stadium (Chepauk) Pitch Report
Chepauk has transformed in IPL 2026. Forget the old reputation of 160 being a competitive total. The average first-innings score here this season is a staggering 193, with 200+ totals becoming routine in evening matches.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Pitch Behaviour | Changed character in 2026. Good pace and bounce early. Spinners still grip in the middle overs but scoring rates are higher than before. |
| Batting Conditions | Much improved from previous years. 190+ is par. First-innings totals of 209, 212, 192, 158 (day game) this season. |
| Bowling Conditions | Pacers get carry early. Spinners (especially left-arm) dominate the middle overs. Death bowling is still difficult. |
| Avg 1st Innings Score (IPL 2026) | 193 (significantly higher than historical Chepauk averages) |
| Bat First vs Chase | 3 of 4 evening games won by the chasing team. Dew from the 14th over helps batters significantly. |
| Key Stat | CSK posted 212/2 against DC here. MI’s bowling concedes at 10.83 economy, the worst in IPL 2026. |
Weather Forecast for CSK vs MI
According to live weather data for Chennai on May 2, the forecast shows mostly sunny skies with only 10% rain probability. Therefore, a full match is virtually guaranteed.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Temperature | Around 31-36°C. Hot and humid (coastal Chennai). |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. No significant rain expected. |
| Rain Probability | 10% (negligible, full match expected) |
| Humidity | High (~67%, typical Chennai coastal humidity) |
| Wind | Light sea breeze |
| Dew Factor | Significant dew from the 14th over onwards. Major advantage for the chasing team. |
| Impact | Humidity will tire fast bowlers. Dew will consequently make defending totals very difficult in the second innings. |
The 67% humidity and evening dew create challenging conditions for bowlers in the second innings. Spinners who rely on grip lose effectiveness after the 14th over. Consequently, CSK’s biggest weapons (Hosein, Noor) are more effective when bowling first.
CSK vs MI Head-to-Head Record in IPL
The greatest rivalry in IPL history. 41 matches spanning 18 seasons, with MI leading 22-19. However, the recent trend has shifted dramatically towards CSK.
| Statistic | Result |
|---|---|
| Total IPL Matches | 41 |
| MI Wins | 22 |
| CSK Wins | 19 |
| IPL Finals Between Them | 4 (MI won 3, CSK won 1) |
| IPL Trophies Each | 5 each (most successful franchises) |
| Last 6 Meetings | CSK won 5, MI won 1 |
| MI’s Last Win at Chepauk | 2019 (chased 132) |
| Reverse Fixture (IPL 2026) | CSK won by 103 runs (Hosein 4/17, MI collapsed to 104) |
| CSK 2026 Form | 3W 5L (6th, 6 pts, lost to GT) |
| MI 2026 Form | 2W 6L+ (9th, ~4 pts, ELIMINATED, bowling eco 10.83) |
Key Players to Watch
Since two five-time champions with a combined 10 IPL trophies clash in cricket’s greatest rivalry, these 7 players could determine whether CSK keep their faint playoff hopes alive or MI play spoiler.
| Player | Team | Why They Matter |
|---|---|---|
| Sanju Samson | CSK | Two centuries this season, including 101* against MI in the reverse fixture. CSK’s batting depends almost entirely on Samson. However, Trent Boult’s left-arm swing against Samson in previous seasons has been effective, making this a key powerplay duel. |
| Ryan Rickelton | MI | 123* against SRH was his second IPL century this season. His aggressive opening alongside Will Jacks (78 partnership in the powerplay vs SRH) gives MI genuine firepower. At Chepauk, where the ball comes on, Rickelton’s timing could consequently dominate. |
| Akeal Hosein | CSK | 4/17 in the reverse fixture destroyed MI. His left-arm spin at Chepauk, where the surface grips, is CSK’s biggest weapon. His arm ball has been nearly unplayable this season. Against MI’s right-hand-heavy lineup, Hosein in the middle overs is devastating. |
| Suryakumar Yadav | MI | 396 runs in 10 innings (avg 49.5) lead MI’s batting. However, his SR of 162 is his lowest since 2019, suggesting Chepauk’s surface may slow him down further. SKY needs to find a higher gear against CSK’s disciplined spin attack. |
| Jamie Overton | CSK | CSK’s most complete player with 136 runs and 9 wickets in 7 innings. His all-round value on a Chepauk surface is enormous. With bat and ball contributing, Overton gives CSK the balance MI lack. |
| AM Ghazanfar | MI | 10 wickets in 6 innings at avg 19.60. MI’s lead spinner after Santner’s season-ending injury. His carrom ball at Chepauk could trouble CSK’s middle order. The Ghazanfar vs Dube/Brevis battle in the middle overs is MI’s best chance of controlling the game. |
| Trent Boult | MI | New arrival replacing injured Santner. Left-arm swing with the new ball and a strong record against Samson and Gaikwad. If Boult takes early wickets at Chepauk, MI’s batting depth gives them a genuine chance of winning. |
Toss Prediction
At Chepauk in evening games this season, 3 of 4 matches have been won by the chasing team. Consequently, bowling first is the overwhelming preference. The dew factor from the 14th over onwards makes defending totals extremely difficult.
However, the one exception was when CSK posted 212/2 against DC and their spinners strangled the chase. That result proves that a 200+ total can be defended if the bowling is disciplined. Nevertheless, MI’s bowling economy of 10.83 suggests they cannot defend anything.
Both Gaikwad and Pandya will want to bowl first. If MI win the toss and bowl, they give Boult the new ball in dry conditions, which is his best chance of dismissing Samson early. Therefore, the toss winner will bowl first, and the toss itself could be worth 10-15 runs.
Match Prediction
Two wounded five-time champions at Chepauk. CSK fighting for survival, MI playing for pride. The rivalry transcends form, which is why this match will still generate more interest than most.
Where CSK Holds the Edge
First of all, home advantage at Chepauk and the spin-friendly surface favour CSK’s bowling attack. Hosein (4/17 in reverse fixture), Noor Ahmad, and Kartik Sharma form a three-pronged spin attack tailored for this surface. Against MI’s batting, which collapsed to 104 at Wankhede, this trio could be even more devastating at Chepauk.
Moreover, CSK’s recent dominance (5 of last 6 wins) in this rivalry creates a psychological barrier for MI. MI have not won at Chepauk since 2019. Seven years without a win at a ground is not a streak you break when your bowling concedes at 10.83.
Additionally, Samson’s form (two centuries, including 101* vs MI) means CSK have the most in-form batter in this fixture. His ability to manipulate spin at Chepauk is unmatched. If Samson fires again, MI’s bowling has no answer.
Where MI Holds the Edge
Nevertheless, batting firepower keeps MI competitive. Rickelton (123* vs SRH), SKY (396 runs), and Tilak (101* vs GT) give MI three genuine century-makers. If even two of them fire at Chepauk, MI can post 200+ regardless of surface conditions.
Furthermore, Boult’s arrival adds the left-arm swing MI have lacked. His record against Samson and Gaikwad in previous encounters is strong. If Boult dismisses both in the powerplay, CSK’s middle order (Dube, Brevis, both struggling) faces a genuine crisis.
Besides, MI have nothing to lose. Already eliminated from playoff contention, the pressure sits entirely on CSK, who must win. When a team plays freely without consequences, they can produce performances that confound expectations. MI as spoilers in this rivalry is a real possibility.
Key Concerns for Both Teams
MI’s concern is fundamentally their bowling. Economy of 10.83 (worst in IPL 2026) tells the story. They posted 243 against SRH and still lost. At Chepauk, where 193 is the average, MI’s bowling needs to somehow concede under 180. Based on their season trajectory, that seems unlikely.
Moreover, Bumrah is having his worst-ever IPL season. Without Bumrah at his best, MI’s death bowling is toothless. Rohit is also unlikely to play, removing MI’s most experienced batter from a venue where experience matters enormously.
Conversely, CSK’s concern is their batting beyond Samson. Gaikwad (25+ just twice in 8 innings), Dube, and Brevis have all struggled in the middle overs. If Boult dismisses Samson early, CSK’s batting collapses because nobody else has shown consistency.
Additionally, CSK’s home record of just 2 wins in 9 matches at Chepauk is alarming. The crowd expects wins, but the team keeps losing at home. That pressure, combined with the stakes (must-win for playoffs), could either inspire or crush a team low on confidence.
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Final Verdict
All in all, CSK hold a clear edge at around 57-61%. Home advantage at Chepauk, Samson’s two centuries, Hosein’s 4/17 in the reverse fixture, and CSK’s 5 wins from the last 6 meetings all favour the hosts.
However, MI’s batting firepower cannot be ignored. Rickelton (123*), SKY (396 runs), and Tilak (101*) can post 200+ on any surface. Boult‘s arrival adds a dimension MI have lacked. If MI bowl first and Boult dismisses Samson early, this match becomes genuinely competitive.
Therefore, expect a par score of 185-200 at the new-look Chepauk (avg 193 this season). The Boult vs Samson powerplay duel and the Hosein vs MI’s middle order battle will most likely decide this El Clasico. Specifically, the team that wins the toss and bowls first holds a significant advantage due to evening dew.
CSK’s season depends on winning this match. MI want to deny their biggest rivals a playoff spot. Although the odds favour Chennai, MI as spoilers with nothing to lose is a dangerous combination. Consequently, the IPL’s greatest rivalry could produce one final twist in a season that has surprised everyone.
